Staða Evrópumarkaðs og spá

 

Reikna má að Evan (EURO) haldi áfram falli á árinu miðað við 0-punkt línu. Fari upp og niður milli quarter en komist ekki upp fyrir beinu línuna (en litlu lóðréttu línunar tákna hvern fjórðung) eins og var á árinu 2008. En á því ári sést hér greinilegt hratt fall Evrunnar fram á árið 2009.

 

Eins og sést á línuritinu þá hefur ekki orðið fall síðan fyrir 1997 síðast.

Þegar að ég hef fundið betri stað til að skoða Evru gagnvart gjaldmiðlum mun ég koma með skýringar og lesningar með myndum hér inn.

Hér er grein sem var tekin af Euroframe:

skýring: GDP= Gross domestic product

Euro Growth Indicator

Quarter	2007:03	2007:04	2008:01	2008:02	2008:03	2008:04	2009:01	2009:02
Euro Growth Indicator	2.64	2.61	2.19	1.88	0.76	-1.20	-2.31	-2.07
Eurostat	2.66	2.19	2.18	1.47	0.62	-1.26

New decline in the Euro Area GDP

 

by Hervé Péléraux, OFCE on April 6th, 2009

 

The recession in the Euro Area economy will continue. The EUROFRAME-Indicator predicts that real GDP will decline by 2.3 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2009 and by 2.1 percent in the second quarter. If converted to the qoq basis (to be taken with caution), real GDP will fall by about 1.6 percent (annualized rate) on average in the first quarter and then roughly stabilize at the low level.

 

Bold inngrip sem skýrir enn betur það sem ég er að tala um í nýjasta blogginu mínu!:

 

While this may give some hope that the downturn will at least not accelerate further, there are some signs which are not so positive. The manufacturing sector is obviously severely hit because the recession is affecting mainly exports. The industry survey therefore shows a dramatically negative contribution; the impact of this indicator has reached a level which has not been observed before in the past two decades. In addition, the retail survey indicates that private consumption should weaken in the coming quarters, which is not surprising in the light of rising unemployment, despite the slowdown of inflation. As far as external factors are concerned, there is some hope that the situation will not worsen much further. The contribution from the ISM survey in US industry became less negative, and the depreciation of the euro in the second half of 2008 will dampen the decline of the EUROFRAME-Indicator in 2009Q2.

The indicator gave the right signal of a collapse in GDP in the 4th quarter of 2008, and anticipates for a smaller decline in the first half of 2009 in quarterly terms. Should we trust such anticipation while no conclusive signal of improvement stems from both internal and external sides? Business surveys could be less sensitive to further deepening of the recession beyond 2008Q4. Balances of opinion could be seen as diffusion indexes which measure how much positive appreciation compared to negative appreciation is widely held by economic agents. In the current situation of outstanding downward cyclical developments, balance of opinion may come closer to their lower limit, i.e. 100 % of negative appreciation. In that case, business surveys would become insensitive to additional negative shocks on GDP and would therefore loose their ability to match business developments.